Yes, when you do investing, you are pitching your judgement call against or with the market.
We make our judgement call using data we obtained and sometimes extrapolate to see what we want to see.
I could also extrapolate similarly by looking at the chart below. For me, I am looking at the chart and see a similar pattern of the blue line and the purple line (since you also using pattern recognition for your jap bubble chart). When I look at the chart, I think we are at the start of a great bull run again (similar to 1990).
But for someone else, he is probably looking at the chart and see us at the start of the 1997 Peak which took 10yrs (in 2007) to retake its peak and subsequently overtook it in July 2010. So for that person, his pattern recognition is that of 1997 peak and so he stay out of the market.
That's why there is buyer willing to take from the seller. People see different things from the same chart. When doing investing, you cannot be right all the time. Whenever you made a judgement call on the market and take action, you must have figured out the downside invovled and how to mitigate it or whether you can survive it. If you have taken care of the downside, the upside will take care of itself.
And by the way, if you think we have a property market about to go into a 10yrs slump. Then probably stock market is not going to do any better.
|Chart Source : The religion of Propertism as preached by a property guru in a property forum|
Disclaimer : we are using charts pattern only.. but property prices and movement have a lot more to do with :-
1) The strength of the global & local economy
2) The power of inflation/deflation
3) The tightening/easing of monetary policy
4) The demand/supply
So when making property investment decision, remember to make your judgement call on the above factors and then deduce where property prices are headed.
Short-term (<10yrs) - we might be at 1997 peak.
Long-term (>20yrs) - we might be at the start of the 1990 bull run.
It's your perspective and time horizon and your faith in the religion of propertism.